Strategy · AU
Analyst Upside
Composite of EPS revisions, insider purchases, analyst target spread, and momentum acceleration. Monthly rebalance.
Performance
Daily mark-to-market NAV from live IBKR paper account.
Current picks
as of 2026-05-18| # | Ticker | Exchange | Market cap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | AMD | NASDAQ | $726.43B | conviction → |
| 02 | FLEX | NASDAQ | $52.80B | conviction → |
| 03 | SIMO | NASDAQ | $9.19B | conviction → |
| 04 | PRLD | NASDAQ | $356M | conviction → |
| 05 | AAOI | NASDAQ | $16.34B | conviction → |
Recent rebalances
Last 1sessions before today's pick. Click any ticker for the full conviction breakdown.
2026-05-15
| # | Ticker | Exchange | Market cap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | AMD | NASDAQ | $726.43B | conviction → |
| 02 | SITM | NASDAQ | $21.65B | conviction → |
| 03 | PRLD | NASDAQ | $356M | conviction → |
| 04 | FLEX | NASDAQ | $52.80B | conviction → |
| 05 | AAOI | NASDAQ | $16.34B | conviction → |
Methodology
How Analyst Upside picks names.
Buys names where multiple independent signals agree the consensus is too low. EPS estimates trending up, insiders putting their own money in, sell-side targets sitting well above spot — those signals rarely align without reason.
- 01
Universe filter
US listings, market cap > $300M, sufficient analyst coverage (target prices, ratings available).
- 02
EPS revisions (30d)
Net up-revisions in EPS estimates over the past 30 days. Captures the post-earnings drift effect.
- 03
Insider activity (90d)
Net dollar volume of insider purchases minus sales over 90 days, scaled to position size. Excludes 10b5-1 scheduled sales.
- 04
Analyst upside
Spread between consensus 12-month target and current price. Premium for names with high spread AND recent EPS upgrades.
- 05
Momentum acceleration
Difference between recent 3-month and 12-month momentum. Names where momentum is improving, not fading.
- 06
Composite score + AI research
All factors winsorised, z-scored, and weighted into a composite. Top 5 selected. Each pick gets an AI research card (same Gemini pipeline as QM) before order placement.
- Rebalance cadence
- Monthly on first business day. Currently testing daily (2026-05-14 → 2026-05-31).
- Universe
- US mid-to-large-cap equity with analyst coverage (~200 names)